Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop in the Middle East

(End of the American Dream)—There has been a tremendous amount of speculation about when and how Iran will attack Israel.  In the aftermath of Israel’s stunning airstrike on a building directly next to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Iranian officials pledged that there would be a very “harsh” response.  I take them at their word, and I am entirely convinced that a response is coming.  But exactly when that response will happen remains a mystery as I write this article.  So for now, we are waiting for the other shoe to drop.  According to Jennifer Jacobs, the senior White House reporter for Bloomberg, sources have told her that an attack on Israel is imminent…

US and allies believe major missile and drone strikes by Iran and its proxies against military and govt targets in Israel are imminent; civilian facilities not expected to be targeted, sources told @donatopmancini and me. Attack may not necessarily come from Israel’s north.

So what does “imminent” mean?

We’re not sure.

That same word was used in a Bloomberg article that was posted just a few hours ago…

The US and its allies believe major missile or drone strikes by Iran or its proxies against military and government targets in Israel are imminent, in what would mark a significant widening of the six-month-old conflict, according to people familiar with the intelligence.

The potential assault, possibly using high-precision missiles, may happen in the coming days, the people said, requesting anonymity to discuss confidential matters. It is seen as more a matter of when, not if, one of the people said, based on assessments from US and Israeli intelligence.

This would certainly be a major escalation.

When Iran finally attacks, most experts believe that Israeli military and government facilities will be targeted.

But if any Iranian missiles land in Israeli territory, Israel’s foreign minister is warning that his country will strike back…

Israel’s foreign minister threatened Wednesday that his country’s forces would strike Iran directly if the Islamic Republic launched an attack from its territory against Israel.

His comments came amid heightened tensions between the rival powers following the killings of Iranian generals in a blast at the Iranian consulate in Syria earlier this month.

In fact, he specifically warned that Israel will “attack in Iran”…

Writing in both his native Hebrew and Farsi, Israel Katz said on X: ‘If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will respond and attack in Iran.’

The blunt and threatening remark came after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei early this morning reiterated a promise to ‘punish an ‘evil’ Israel following a suspected IDF strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria that killed 12 people, including two top generals, on April 1.

We could literally be on the verge of witnessing the start of an all-out war between Israel and Iran.

Once they start lobbing missiles at one another, there is a very real possibility that a chain of events will be set in motion that nobody will be able to stop.

I think that there is a lot of last minute diplomacy going on behind the scenes that we don’t know about. In particular, I think that the Biden administration is desperate to avoid a major regional war. But it appears unlikely that the Iranians can be persuaded to change their course of action.

Perhaps if Israel had chosen to end the war in Gaza the Iranians may have considered a deal, but that was never going to happen.

The IDF continues to hit Gaza really hard, and on Wednesday the most senior political leader of Hamas lost three of his sons…

Three sons of Hamas’ most senior political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, were killed Wednesday in an Israeli airstrike in the Gaza Strip, according to relatives and Hamas media channels. Haniyeh himself acknowledged the death of more family members, and he warned Israel that it would not “break the resolve of our people.”

Ameer, Hazem and Mohammed Haniyeh were killed near the Shati refugee camp in Gaza City, Hamas said.

In a statement released Wednesday, the Israel Defense Forces said it killed “three Hamas military operatives that conducted terrorist activity in the central Gaza Strip.” The IDF claimed that Ameer Haniyeh was a cell commander in the Hamas military wing, while Mohammad Haniyeh and Hazem Haniyeh were military operatives.

If he could go back in time, I am sure that Ismail Haniyeh never would have authorized the terror attacks on October 7th if he would have known that it would mean the loss of three of his sons.

But this is the way that war works. It often has consequences that none of us anticipate.

Now Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a decision to make. He knows that Hamas cannot be destroyed unless the IDF goes into Rafah, but if the IDF goes into Rafah it could potentially cause the entire region to erupt in flames.

We shall see what happens, but at this stage is appears that the decision has already been made…

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that a date has been set for an Israeli invasion of Rafah, Gaza’s last refuge for displaced Palestinians, without disclosing that date as a new round of ceasefire talks take place in Cairo.

‘Today I received a detailed report on the talks in Cairo, we are constantly working to achieve our goals, first and foremost the release of all our hostages and achieving a complete victory over Hamas,’ Netanyahu said.

‘This victory requires entry into Rafah and the elimination of the terrorist battalions there. It will happen – there is a date.’

We will also want to keep a very close eye on the northern front.

According to the UN agreement that ended the last war, all Hezbollah forces are supposed to be located north of the Litani River.

One way or another, the Israeli government is absolutely determined to make Hezbollah abide by that agreement so that all of the Israelis that have been evacuated from communities in northern Israel can return to their homes safely.

But Hezbollah will never withdraw north of the Litani River willingly.

So an operation in southern Lebanon is being prepared, and once the IDF crosses the border that will mean all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah.

There are multiple ways that the conflict in the Middle East could spiral out of control.

I am entirely convinced that this will be the year that it happens. But for the moment, we continue to wait for the next shoe to drop.

Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.