Today’s Votes Are Extremely Important, But Let’s Not Exaggerate Their Impact on 2026 Elections

Today marks a landmark, or so they’d have us believe. It’s the most important election in an off-election year in history, or so they’ve have us believe. And while there is no denying that from California to New York City, the impact of these votes will weigh heavily into the future, let’s not exaggerate what this will mean for 2026. If recent history has taught us anything, it’s that “bellwethers” and “harbingers” rarely make a difference weeks before elections, let alone a year ahead of the midterms.

Voters across the country are heading to the polls today for a handful of races that carry real weight, even if they don’t reshape the entire political landscape overnight. With President Donald Trump now nearly 10 months into his second term, these contests—from gubernatorial battles in New Jersey and Virginia to New York City’s mayoral race—serve as an early gauge of how his agenda is playing out.

Trump himself fired up supporters on Election Eve with a stark warning: “FAILING TO VOTE TOMORROW IS THE SAME AS VOTING FOR A DEMOCRAT.”

In New Jersey, Republican Jack Ciattarelli is mounting his third bid for governor, facing off against Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill in a state where Democrats hold a registration edge but Republicans have proven they can win at this level. Ciattarelli, who came close to unseating Gov. Phil Murphy four years ago, has been gaining ground in recent weeks. Recent polls show Sherrill ahead 51% to 43%, according to Quinnipiac, while Emerson gives her a slight edge.

Trump, who narrowed his loss in the state to just six points last year, held tele-rallies for Ciattarelli to rally the base. Ciattarelli told Fox News, “We appreciate what the president is doing to get the base excited, and remind them that they got to vote, as do all New Jerseyans. The future of our state hangs in the balance. Get out and vote.”

Sherrill has tried to tie Ciattarelli to Trump, saying her opponent “has really gone in lockstep with the president, giving him an A.” The campaign took a turn when Sherrill’s military records were released—supposedly by mistake—from the National Personnel Records Center, revealing details about a cheating scandal at the Naval Academy that blocked her graduation, though she was never accused. Some wonder if this “mistake” was truly accidental, given the timing and the ally of Ciattarelli who received the files. Sherrill also accused Ciattarelli of being “complicit” in opioid deaths through his former company’s promotion of pain treatments.

Down in Virginia, the governor’s race pits Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears against Democrat former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, with Spanberger seen as the favorite until recent scandals in the attorney general contest shifted momentum. Polls from Emerson show Spanberger leading by 11 points. The race heated up over Democratic AG candidate Jay Jones’ old texts comparing a GOP lawmaker to Hitler and Pol Pot, prompting calls for him to drop out.

Spanberger called the comments “absolutely abhorrent” but stopped short of withdrawing support. Earle-Sears pressed her on it during their debate. Whoever wins will replace term-limited GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin. Trump notably held back a direct endorsement for Earle-Sears, though he’s backed dozens of other Republicans nationwide.

New York City’s mayoral election could see history made if democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, 34, becomes the first Muslim and millennial to lead the city. He’s facing former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent after his scandal-plagued resignation four years ago, and Republican Curtis Sliwa. Embattled Mayor Eric Adams dropped out last month but endorsed Cuomo, and his name lingers on the ballot.

Polls have Mamdani leading Cuomo. Mamdani’s far-left ideas, like defunding police and aggressive wealth taxes, have drawn fire from all sides, raising questions about whether New Yorkers are ready to hand the reins to someone so aligned with progressive extremes.

Out west, California voters decide on Proposition 50, which would ditch the state’s nonpartisan redistricting commission and let the Democratic legislature redraw congressional maps for the next few cycles. Gov. Gavin Newsom is pushing it hard to create more left-leaning seats, countering GOP gains in places like Texas where Trump urged redistricting that added right-leaning districts. Polls indicate strong support for the measure. This comes amid broader Republican efforts to shore up their slim House majority ahead of next year, avoiding the 2018 midterm losses during Trump’s first term.

In Pennsylvania, three Democratic-leaning Supreme Court justices face retention votes that could flip the court’s 5-2 liberal majority. These rarely spotlighted races have pulled in big outside money, much like Wisconsin’s court battle earlier this year that cost nearly $100 million. The outcome could sway voting rights, abortion cases, and even congressional maps in this battleground state.

Trump’s presence looms over all of it, from his endorsements to his push for voter turnout. Social media buzz echoes this, with posts noting how his agenda is fueling GOP surges in unexpected places. These races matter for local control and testing the waters on issues like crime, taxes, and border security.

Still, let’s keep perspective—they’re not a crystal ball for the 2026 midterms. Off-year elections often hinge on turnout and local quirks, not national waves. Republicans defend narrow majorities next year, and while a strong showing today would boost momentum, overreading the tea leaves risks missing the bigger picture.