(The Economic Collapse Blog)—An atmospheric river is about to absolutely hammer the Pacific Northwest. There will be flooding in some areas and up to 20 feet of snow in the mountains of British Columbia. Once the atmospheric river is pushed further south, it is expected to dump a month’s worth of rain on Sacramento in just 48 hours.
The wild weather that I have just described will be inconvenient, but it won’t be catastrophic. However, if an extended series of atmospheric rivers creates “ARkStorm” conditions in California during the winter months, that truly would be catastrophic. An “ARkStorm” is much more likely to develop during El Niño years, and it is being projected that the Super El Niño of 2026-2027 will be the most powerful El Niño ever recorded.
Any atmospheric rivers that approach California will be turbocharged by this insanely powerful Super El Niño, and as a result a colossal amount of rainfall could fall on the state in the months ahead.
As I discussed in a previous article, atmospheric rivers are most likely to hit California between the months of September and March.
Peak activity tends to be concentrated in the winter months of December, January and February.
As you will see below, meteorologists are warning that back-to-back atmospheric rivers could hammer the state on a nearly weekly basis by January.
If such a scenario actually materializes, California could be facing an “ARkStorm”.
Most people do not realize this, but California has actually experienced an “ARkStorm” on many occasions over the past 1,800 years.
The most recent occasion was the Great Flood of 1861-1862…
- The 1861–1862 Benchmark: Geologic records and historical data document the Great Flood of 1861–1862, when 45 days of relentless atmospheric rivers created a 300-mile-long inland sea across the Central Valley, submerging Sacramento, Stockton, and Fresno.
- A Trillion-Dollar Disaster Model: A catastrophic scenario developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), NOAA, and FEMA estimates that a modern ARkStorm could inundate up to 25% of all buildings in California.
- The Insurance Gap: With the state’s real estate value exceeding $10 trillion and only approximately 12% of California property owners carrying active flood insurance policies, economic damage models warn that uninsured structural losses could top $1 trillion.
- A Developing Super El Niño: With climate forecasters estimating an 83% probability that the 2026–2027 El Niño will rank among the strongest in recorded history, atmospheric scientists warn that the threshold for severe, multi-week flooding events has risen significantly heading into the core winter months.
It will take a long series of atmospheric rivers to create “ARkStorm” conditions.
So we will watch to see if that is what actually starts happening.
Of course a very alarming pattern is already starting to develop…
A series of storms carrying long plumes of moisture, known as atmospheric rivers, will bring heavy rain, strong winds and mountain snow to British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. Flooding and strong winds will disrupt travel, while heavy snow will increase avalanche concerns in the mountains.
Rain and mountain snow will fall in rounds, with breaks between storms. During the heaviest downpours, rainfall rates could reach 1-2 inches per hour in some locations. Rain this intense can overwhelm drainage systems, especially where fallen leaves clog storm drains.
It looks like there will be large amounts of rain and snow in the Pacific Northwest for a few days, and then Northern California will get hit “later in the week”…
Rather than a single storm system, a succession of Pacific disturbances will bring periods of rain, initially focusing on the Pacific Northwest before gradually shifting south toward California later in the week.
The pattern is already making its presence felt across the Northwest. Overnight Saturday into Sunday, nearly 100,000 customers lost power across Washington as powerful wind gusts swept through the region.
Winds in the lower elevations were near 50 to 60 mph, while higher elevations saw even stronger gusts. Near Mount Rainier, a gust of 95 mph was recorded.
Thanks to the Super El Niño, the storms that are about to pummel the Pacific Northwest will be very strong.
By the time Saturday rolls around, some portions of British Columbia and western Washington state are expected to get over a foot of rain…
Through Saturday, Nov. 14, more than a foot of rain could pour down in parts of coastal British Columbia and western Washington, particularly on west- and south-facing slopes at lower and middle elevations.
“Runoff will increase from each storm as the ground becomes saturated,” AccuWeather Senior Storm Warning Meteorologist Tim Richards said. “As runoff increases and becomes more widespread, the likelihood of flooding in small streams and rivers will rise.”
There are some areas in western Washington state that are quite prone to flooding.
If you live in one of those areas, you should be aware that there is a very strong chance that you are about to get flooded again.
In the mountains of British Columbia, the amount of snow that falls could be up to 20 feet deep…
Through Nov. 14, total snowfall accumulation could reach 10-20 feet in parts of British Columbia’s Coast Mountains. Farther south, snow in Washington’s Cascade and Olympic mountains will generally be confined to the highest elevations.
I have never lived anywhere that got that much snow.
How do people manage that?
Once we get to Friday, the atmospheric river will have been pushed further south and will start soaking Northern California.
It is expected that the amount of rain that Sacramento gets from this system will be equivalent to what it normally receives during the entire month of November…
- Precipitation Timing: The system is expected to deliver one to two days of heavy, concentrated rainfall across Northern and Central California before pushing inland.
- Monthly Rainfall in 48 Hours: Projections indicate cities like Sacramento could receive nearly two inches of rain during the storm window—matching the city’s entire historical average for the month of November in a single event.
- Heavy Sierra Snowfall: At higher elevations, the system is expected to dump several feet of snow across the Sierra Nevada, providing an early boost for Lake Tahoe ski resorts preparing for November openings.
- Winter Cadence: Meteorologists note this mid-November system is only an opening salvo. Because El Niño is projected to intensify over the next two months, California could experience back-to-back atmospheric rivers on a nearly weekly basis by January.
Sacramento was one of the areas that was underwater for months as a result of the Great Flood of 1861-1862.
Of course one storm is not anything to get too excited about.
What alarms me most about the article that I quoted above is the fact that meteorologists are warning that California “could experience back-to-back atmospheric rivers on a nearly weekly basis by January”.
That is precisely the type of weather pattern that could potentially create “ARkStorm” conditions.
Already, long-range models are indicating that there will be large amounts of precipitation for California as we move through the rest of this month…
Long-range models are hinting at some of these Pacific waves continuing to drive into California and for the Four Corners next week. Heavy rain, snow, and strong winds could be a possibility as we move into the middle of November.
Whatever happens this month would just be the warm up act.
December, January and February are the prime months for an ARkStorm.
According to the USGS, the geologic record shows that there have been “6 megastorms more severe than 1861-1862 in California in the last 1800 years”.
What that is telling us is that there have been many “ARkStorms” in California in the past, and we should expect more in the future.
Thanks to the Super El Niño of 2026-2027, conditions are ideal for one to occur during the upcoming winter months.
If an ARkStorm does materialize, it will likely be the costliest natural disaster in modern American history.
Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
