(DCNF)—Democrats are warning that their party’s nominee to be the next senator for Texas, James Talarico, apparently lacks the amount of support from black voters he needs to flip the traditionally Republican state.
“Listen, my home state of Texas, we feel incredibly encouraged for two reasons,” Ashley Etienne, formerly the communications director for Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, told “Meet the Press” host Kristen Welker on Sunday. “But the challenge is: the only way you win the state of Texas as a Democrat is if you overperform with Black voters.”
“I just came back from Houston last night, meeting with operatives on the ground and state elected officials. They are concerned that there’s mild enthusiasm among Black voters and that this $25 million that Talarico promised he was going to spend over a month ago has yet to start to flow,” she continued. “The investments aren’t there yet. And then you couple that with the fact that Elon Musk said he’s going to spend nearly $200 million on these races, and Texas is a huge target for that. And you’ve got a problem with black voters in Texas: you’ve got 34% of black men voting for Donald Trump. So if you’re going to wait until Labor Day to start campaigning with black voters, you’re playing to lose.”
Etienne’s warning follows that of Democratic Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who fell short in the March 3, 2026, Senate primary to Talarico, 52.4% to 46.2%. The lame duck congresswoman similarly questioned whether black voters are energized by his candidacy.
“I personally don’t feel like the excitement necessarily exists within the black community right now, like I don’t feel like they’re excited, right?” Crockett said on Friday’s episode of the “Front Page” podcast.
The Democrats’ concerns center on turnout as Talarico attempts to build the coalition necessary to win statewide in Texas. The 37-year-old Texas state representative has already launched an aggressive attempt to shore up support from black voters following his bruising primary win over Crockett. Crockett endorsed Talarico the day after her defeat but said in June she did not plan to campaign for him.
Talarico, for his part, announced a $25 million get-out-the-vote effort targeting black voters in July as he sought to win over Crockett’s supporters. The move occurred as Talarico faced tense questions from black voters during a July 20 town hall event in Houston.
The primary results underscore Talarico’s challenge despite his success. Crockett beat Talarico in counties containing Dallas, Fort Worth, and Houston — all of which have significant black populations — and carried nearly every East Texas county in which the Democratic electorate is predominantly black.
Crockett won 86% of the vote in heavily black precincts in Houston-centered Harris County, while Talarico carried predominantly white precincts by a roughly three-to-one ratio.
Talarico is facing Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Nov. 3, 2026, general election. Recent polling place both candidates within the margin of error; Decision Desk HQ has rated the contest a toss-up.
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